Safaricom

The disparity between Safaricom’s substantial impact and user base versus its market valuation raises critical questions about the realistic aspirations of Kenyan startups to attain unicorn status. 

Safaricom stands as Kenya’s most valuable company, boasting an extensive user base of over 46 million subscribers and playing a pivotal role in job creation. 

Despite this, the telecom giant’s market valuation is less than $4 billion. Furthermore, the safaricom share price is currently ksh 13.50, a significant drop from a high ksh 24.75 exactly a year ago. This valuation, when compared with international counterparts and prevailing global market trends, underscores a unique challenge in the Kenyan landscape. 

The critical question that emerges is whether Kenyan startups can realistically aspire to achieve unicorn status in an environment where a company of Safaricom’s magnitude faces valuation constraints

Kenyan startups aspiring for unicorn status encounter numerous challenges that impede their growth and sustainability. Access to funding remains a significant hurdle, marked by limited capital availability and difficulties in securing funding. 

The tax regime and regulatory landscape add layers of complexity, requiring startups to navigate intricate legal frameworks. Innovation is hindered by financial constraints, and competition within the market intensifies the struggle. 

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Market conditions, operational costs, and a funding drought further compound these challenges. The Kenyan startup ecosystem also grapples with insufficient research, lacking accurate data on its development and dynamics. 

The decline in startup funding across the continent, dropping from $1.8 billion in the first half of 2022 to $1 billion in 2023, further underscore the financial strains faced by startups. 

Jumia’s initial public offering (IPO) on the New York Stock Exchange in April 2019 serves as a stark illustration of valuation challenges faced by startups. Despite an impressive start with shares opening at $14.50 and rising over 200% in the first three trading sessions, Jumia’s stock experienced a drastic decline, plummeting nearly 70%. 

The company’s valuation plummeted from $4 billion to less than $400 million, marking a significant setback. Several factors contributed to this decline, including cost-cutting measures that saw reductions in sales, advertising, and delivery expenses. 

Macro challenges, such as high inflation, currency devaluation, and difficulties for sellers in sourcing goods, further compounded the situation. Jumia’s 2023 Q2 results, reflecting a 16% decline in stock value, prompted a strategic shift to focus on reducing losses. 

Notably, allegations of fraud in 2019 by Andrew Left, editor of Citron Research, significantly impacted Jumia’s shares, causing a precipitous drop from $14.50 to $3.58 in less than a year.

Safaricom’s unparalleled ability to reach the entire Kenyan population is underscored by its expansive network infrastructure. With the widest 2G and 3G network and an expanding fiber cable footprint, Safaricom delivers the country’s fastest broadband service, ensuring connectivity even in remote areas. 

However, it is Safaricom’s revolutionary M-PESA mobile money service that stands out as a phenomenon in Kenya. M-PESA has played a transformative role in democratizing technology, making financial services accessible to all, even on the simplest devices. 

By enabling transactions, payments, and financial services through mobile phones, including basic feature phones, M-PESA has bridged gaps in financial inclusion and empowered individuals across diverse socioeconomic backgrounds.

The valuation dynamics of Safaricom challenge traditional VC valuation metrics, prompting scrutiny into the alignment of VC valuations with public market realities. 

While venture capitalists (VCs) typically outperform public market investors, valuing high-growth companies, like Safaricom, proves complex due to their intricate financial structures. VCs base their evaluations on product, market, and founder/team strength, analyzing financial health through projections, revenue models, cost structures, and profitability potential. 

Safaricom’s case in 2023 presents a unique scenario, where its company valuation lags behind its peer group in public markets, indicating a potential misalignment with traditional VC metrics. The market volatility and corrections in 2023 led to large investors pulling back, impacting the safaricom share price at the nairobi stock exchange, which plummeted by 49.9% between Sept-2022 and Nov-2023.

Several market dynamics have influenced safaricom share price and valuation. Foreign investors faced challenges repatriating share sale proceeds due to currency depreciation and high forex rates. Increased demand, particularly after the government accepted higher bids for bonds, added pressure on the safaricom stock. 

The company’s valuation dipped below the Sh1 trillion mark at the Nairobi bourse following US rate hikes. Government interference and the expansion into Ethiopia also contributed to a 49.9% plummet in Safaricom’s share price between September 2022 and November 2023. 

Notably, Safaricom’s services, including M-Pesa, operate without requiring an internet connection or smartphone. M-Pesa’s offline mode and accessibility via USSD codes further contribute to Safaricom’s resilience in serving customers.

Achieving unicorn status, while an aspirational goal for startups, comes with challenges. Kenyan startups can learn from Safaricom’s journey by prioritizing innovation, adaptability, and user-centric solutions. 

Safaricom’s success, driven by services like M-Pesa, showcases the importance of addressing real-world needs and leveraging technology for broad accessibility. 

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